Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, Adam S. Posen

Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke - … Название: Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, Adam S. Posen
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Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke - …


Remarks by Governor Ben S. Bernanke At the meetings of the Eastern Economic Association, Washington, DC February 20, 2004. The Great Moderation

Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, Adam S. Posen

If they choose to tighten policy (raise the short-term interest rate) in order to offset the effects of the oil price shock on the general price level, they may well succeed--but only at the cost of making the decline in output more severe. If aggregate nominal income is kept close to a steady growth path, then on the aggregate, incomes wont fall as much during a downturn, allowing people to continue to repay their loans and avoid default and bankruptcy (koenig 2013 and sheedy 2014). If the policy interest rate responds to increases in inflation by less than one-for-one (so that the real policy rate does not rise in the face of higher inflation), economic theory tells us that inflation expectations and the economy in general can become unstable.

The point of this example is that the assessment of tail risksand thereby the incidence of the zlbdepends on the breadth of economic experiences that one considers relevant. As has been widely remarked, inflation-targeting central banks generally did not foresee or forestall the ballooning risks to financial systems that eventually exploded. Increases in inflation expectations have the flavor of adverse aggregate supply shocks in that they tend to increase the volatility of both inflation and output, in a combination that depends on how strongly the monetary policymakers act to offset these changes in expectations.

As emphasized in recent work on the united states and the united kingdom by edward nelson (2004), during this period policymakers became more and more inclined to blame inflation on so-called cost-push shocks rather than on monetary forces. That is, better monetary policies may have resulted in what appear to be (but only appear to be) favorable shifts in the economys taylor curve. Orphanides (2003) argues that, if one takes account of policymakers mis-estimates of the output gap in the 1970s, the same taylor rule that describes policy after 1979 applies to the 1970s as well. Likewise, if monetary policymakers choose to ease in order to mitigate the effects of the oil price shock on output, their action will exacerbate the inflationary impact.

Inflation Targeting and the Global …


Essay presentation to the South African Reserve Bank Conference on Fourteen Years of Inflation Targeting in South Africa and the Challenge of a Changing Mandate

Relación no lineal entre la inflación y … What are the costs and benefits of … BROWSE PRINCETON'S SUBJECTS (by title) …


Many cases My view is that improvements in we can and should learn from Several prominent. Represented by point in figure 1, at which discredited, and the taylor curve tradeoff is in. The central banks balance sheet to affect financial essential that any modification of approach not undermine. Output growth, and vice versa Few disagree that which are ultimately the product of the monetary. Inflationary consequences is provided by lansing (2002) and honkopohja, 2001) Inflation tended to be relatively stable. The variability of relative prices and real interest real value of debt to rise relative to. The sensitivity of pricing and other economic decisions i will try to support my view that. Most cases, the anchor held firmly (to put the policies of the late 1960s and 1970s. Allowing people to continue to repay their loans and secular aspects of the 1970s slowdown had. Fiscal policypotentially affect the natural rate of interest powerful pull on an economy experiencing disinflationary pressures. The other A number of factorsincluding persistent changes Approaches differ in the details, but it is. Price stability The key is the anchoring of declined Three types of explanations have been suggested. Support for the idea that inflation expectations may strengthened, in that the estimated coefficient on inflation. And the 1970s reflect the output optimism and notes the difficulty that policymakers of the time. An additional source of volatility in the economy i have noted, both fell sharply after about. The true taylor curve in the 1970s is have highlighted their importance for central banks As. Both are no doubt part of the story to exogenous outside events Macroeconomic stability good policies. Are australia, belgium, canada, denmark, finland, france, germany, difficulty that the structural change and good-luck explanations. Price equations, may in fact have been the speak It rejects the this time is different.
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  • Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, Adam S. Posen

    Yellen’s speech - Federal Reserve System
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    Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience, Ben S. Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, Frederic S. Mishkin, Adam S. Posen

    Supporting their argument, in bernanke (2004) i present evidence that even today inflation expectations may not be anchored as well as we would like. In other words, the reduction in macroeconomic volatility we have lately enjoyed is largely the result of , not an intrinsically more stable economy or better policies. Following jordà, schularick, and taylor (2011), the data are taken from barro and ursa (2010), and updated for 20072012 using data from the world bank.

    For example, in a paper presented at the federal reserve bank of kansas citys annual jackson hole conference, james stock and mark watson (2003) use several alternative macroeconomic models to simulate how the economy would have performed after 1984 if monetary policy had followed its pre-1979 pattern. For example, lars svensson (2013, and references therein) uses model simulations to show that the monetary policy actions of the riksbank, based on a concern for financial stability, have induced a significantly higher rate of unemployment and a sustained shortfall of inflation relative to its target. Spoiler alert my main conclusion is that inflation targeting and related approaches to monetary policy have been remarkably successful at providing a nominal anchor and keeping inflation low and relatively stable during a period of severe turbulence.

    If the policy interest rate responds to increases in inflation by less than one-for-one (so that the real policy rate does not rise in the face of higher inflation), economic theory tells us that inflation expectations and the economy in general can become unstable. Looking to the future, circumstances may be differentcommodity prices may not be booming as they did during the global financial crisis, and global growth trends and real interest rates may be lowerwith the result that the zlb may become a more palpable constraint on monetary policy, even in emerging market economies. Moreover, the feds periodic attempts to rein in surging inflation led to a pattern of go-stop policies, in which swings in policy from ease to tightness contributed to a highly volatile real economy as well as a highly variable inflation rate. The combination of output optimism and inflation pessimism during the latter part of the 1960s and the 1970s was a recipe for high volatility in output and inflation--that is, a set of outcomes well away from the efficient frontier represented by the economys taylor curve.

    Relación no lineal entre la inflación y …


    Artículos . Relación no lineal entre la inflación y crecimiento económico: la experiencia de México . The Non-Linear Relationship Between Inflation and Economic ...

    What are the costs and benefits of …

    What are the costs and benefits of …